It’s only 2025, but the 2028 Democratic presidential primary buzz is already heating up, and two names grabbing unexpected attention are Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Zohran Mamdani.
The latest AtlasIntel poll, conducted from July 13 to 18 among Democratic-leaning voters, reveals a fragmented field without a clear frontrunner. But what’s surprising everyone is how high AOC ranks, and that Mamdani’s even on the radar at all.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is currently leading the pack with 26.7 percent. Right behind him, AOC comes in strong at 18.5 percent, pretty major for someone who’s never held statewide office. She’s polling ahead of major party heavyweights like California Governor Gavin Newsom (15.8 percent) and even former Vice President Kamala Harris (14.5 percent). AOC hasn’t officially thrown her name in yet, but this kind of early momentum makes it clear she’s more than just a long shot.
While she’s stayed coy about running, her moves lately haven’t exactly been subtle. Her “Fighting Oligarchy” tour with Bernie Sanders drew big national attention, and she dropped a campaign-style video with the tagline “We are one.” When pressed about a 2028 run, she sidestepped, telling Fox News it’s not about politics right now but protecting Medicaid and civil rights. Still, with this kind of national presence and grassroots support, she’s already being called a top-tier contender. Nate Silver even named her as the most likely Democrat to lead the 2028 ticket earlier this year.
Then there’s Zohran Mamdani, a New York Assemblymember currently running for mayor of NYC. He’s polling at 4 percent, tied with Senator Cory Booker and ahead of some bigger names like Governor Josh Shapiro (3.2 percent) and even Gretchen Whitmer (1.4 percent). Mamdani’s leftist message has clearly landed with some voters, but there’s a big constitutional catch: he was born in Uganda, so he’s not a “natural-born citizen.” Translation, he’s not eligible to be president, even if the support is there.
Still, Mamdani’s popularity shows that a chunk of the Democratic base is craving a more radical, outsider candidate. And with his support likely overlapping with AOC’s, there’s a real risk of a split in the progressive vote if he continues to rise in visibility.
Elsewhere in the field, things stay murky. Tim Walz, Minnesota’s governor and the 2024 Democratic VP nominee, pulled in 8.7 percent. Booker and Mamdani tied at 4 percent, while others like Shapiro, Whitmer, Senator Raphael Warnock (0.5 percent), and Rahm Emanuel (0.3 percent) lagged further behind. The takeaway? The Democratic primary is a mess, divided across regions, ideologies, and generations. There’s no Obama 2008 or Biden 2020 figure to rally around yet.
Meanwhile, the GOP side looks like a one-man show. JD Vance is dominating the Republican primary with 57.9 percent of Republican voters behind him. That’s miles ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (13.2 percent) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (9.7 percent). Donald Trump Jr. is hanging in there with 4.6 percent, while other names like Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, Brian Kemp, and Tom Cotton are barely registering.
As of now, 2028 is shaping up to be a chaotic rematch of old vs. new, progressive vs. moderate, and establishment vs. anti-establishment. AOC’s 18.5 percent and Mamdani’s surprising 4 percent aren’t just numbers, they’re signs that a new kind of energy is building within the Democratic Party. Whether that translates into actual campaigns remains to be seen, but if the early polling is any indication, AOC is poised to be a serious player, and Mamdani’s name isn’t going away anytime soon, even if the Constitution keeps him off the ballot.
The road to 2028 is still long, but one thing’s for sure: this race won’t look anything like the last.
Leo Cruz brings sharp insights into the world of politics, offering balanced reporting and analysis on the latest policies, elections, and global political events. With years of experience covering campaigns and interviewing world leaders, Leo ensures readers are always informed and engaged.
