- India’s cities are growing rapidly, but outdated and fragmented data is a big hurdle in tracking risks, identifying gaps, or managing growth effectively.
- India must look beyond GDP and focus on frameworks like natural capital accounting and the Inclusive Wealth Index to capture the actual value of urban assets such as green spaces and the hidden costs of environmental loss.
- A shift is needed towards data-driven governance, where data informs budgets, guides priorities, and advances integrated systems to track equity, air quality, and climate resilience.
- The views in this commentary are those of the author.
India’s cities are racing into the future, swelling in size, complexity, and ambition. By 2030, more than 40% of the country’s population, around 600 million people, will call urban areas home.
Cities in India are engines of growth and already contribute over 70% of India’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Yet, for all this growth, India’s urban policymakers are flying blind. They are grappling with the monumental task of building resilient, inclusive, and sustainable cities. Still, they lack a clear understanding of crucial aspects like where vulnerabilities are high, where the opportunities lie, and the costs of inaction.
This is the crux of India’s urban paradox: a future unfolding at breakneck speed, guided by data that is outdated, fragmented, and incomplete. It has a direct impact on common people.
For example, the Praja Foundation reveals that in Mumbai, slum residents receive 45 litres of water per capita per day (LPCD), significantly below the recommended 135 LPCD. Furthermore, the absence of localised weather monitoring stations in populous cities like Noida and Ghaziabad leads to delayed or insufficient weather alerts, exacerbating vulnerability to extreme weather events. Without a serious overhaul of how we collect and use information, India’s cities risk becoming unmanageable, vulnerable, and unsustainable.
Mapping the blind spots
The problem runs deeper than just a lack of numbers. India’s cities are built on data deserts. Many still rely on the 2011 Census to make decisions about housing, transport, pollution control and public health. That’s a decade-old snapshot in a country where millions have migrated, new megacities have sprawled and the climate crisis has escalated. Entire neighbourhoods have emerged and others have been densified beyond recognition. Yet planners are left guessing about the basics: how many people live in which area, what services they need, and what risks they face.
While a step forward, the NITI Aayog’s SDG Urban Index tracks only a narrow set of indicators, overlooking critical aspects such as climate resilience, social inclusion, and environmental quality. An assessment by the Janaagraha Centre of Citizenship and Democracy (2023) found that many Indian cities suffer from serious gaps in long-term urban climate planning.
This is not just an academic problem. A city that doesn’t know its climate risks or the state of its natural assets cannot prepare for the floods, heatwaves, and storms already battering India’s urban centres. Without these insights, cities remain blind to the real pressures on their systems: who is most vulnerable to floods, where air quality is worsening, or whether green spaces are shrinking. The lack of disaggregated, city-level data means urban policy becomes a guessing game, prone to misfires and blind spots. And it is not just about measuring more, but it’s about measuring smarter.
That’s where frameworks such as natural capital accounting and the Inclusive Wealth Framework present a new way forward. These frameworks look beyond narrow fixes for GDP or infrastructure counts and pose a deeper question: what creates a wealthy, liveable, and resilient city? They look beyond roads and buildings to the entire range of assets that support urban life, from clean air and green spaces to wetlands, tree canopies, education, and access to healthcare. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (2021), India has already begun to shift this dynamic by adopting a national statistical framework for natural capital accounting based on the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA). The SEEA framework gives policymakers a way to put a real economic value on ecosystems. It helps in accounting for benefits that often go unnoticed, such as the carbon stored in urban forests, the protection wetlands offer against floods, and rivers’ role in recharging groundwater.
It is essential to shift our perspective, as disregarding natural systems comes at a significant cost. India’s history offers a lesson. Between 1990 and 2008, India’s per capita GDP increased by an impressive 120%. However, during the same period, its natural capital—comprising forests, clean water, clean air, and other natural assets—decreased from 31% in 1990 to 15% in 2014 (of the total capital stock of the nation in 1990). This stark statistic, noted in the U.N. Inclusive Wealth Report (2018), illustrates how conventional economic measures conceal perilous trade-offs: cities can appear prosperous on paper while silently degrading the systems that support life and human flourishing.
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11 calls for inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities. It is particularly important for the way India’s urban future is unfolding. However, progress remains uneven and fragmented.
A 2023 study notes that an estimated 18% of Indian cities exhibit low efficiency in converting environmental gains into socioeconomic improvements, while nearly 55% fall short of their respective state-level SDG benchmarks. Despite their scale and significance, many urban centres operate without the data required to assess whether they are becoming more equitable, improving air quality, or effectively mitigating climate risks. The lack of granular, locally relevant metrics and the weak integration of environmental concerns into urban development planning have created systemic blind spots, undermining India’s ability to localise the SDG agenda effectively.
An integrated information system that combines economic, social, and environmental data is essential for progressing towards sustainable development. In India’s context, this means breaking down silos between city departments, creating a unified urban wealth dashboard that tracks everything from green cover and air quality to literacy rates and public health.
The urban ecology equation
When cities adopt such an integrated approach, they gain the ability to identify trade-offs and make informed decisions. A plan to pave over wetlands for a new real estate project might seem like a quick economic win. However, when the loss of flood protection, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity is factored in through natural capital accounting, it becomes clear that the project may erode the city’s long-term resilience. Conversely, investing in tree planting or restoring river floodplains can be recognised as adding wealth, not just environmental value, but also economic and social benefits, such as cooler temperatures, improved health, and reduced disaster risk.
This shift also requires transforming how cities govern. Many municipal bodies in India are under-resourced and fragmented and cannot collect, analyse, and act on data. Yet some promising models are emerging. The Smart Cities Mission has piloted Integrated Command and Control Centres since 2017-2018 that utilise real-time data to manage urban services, such as traffic and waste management. These centres hint at what’s possible, but they are not enough. India’s cities need a complete change in the governance ecosystem where data is not an afterthought but a core part of how decisions are made, budgets are allocated, and progress is tracked.
Imagine a future where every major Indian city has an inclusive wealth dashboard that is regularly updated and made public, where residents can see not just how many kilometres of road have been built but also whether air quality has improved, whether tree cover has increased, and whether children’s access to education has expanded. Such transparency would make cities more accountable to their residents and empower communities to demand better outcomes. It would also help local governments prioritise investments that build long-term wealth, such as public transport, green infrastructure, renewable energy, affordable housing, and inclusive public spaces. By valuing natural and human capital alongside traditional economic assets, cities can make more intelligent choices that protect people and the planet.
Ultimately, this is not just about data but what we value as a society. India’s cities are at a crossroads. India’s cities face a choice. One path offers quick economic returns, but it also carries risks that damage the natural systems and community networks that support urban life. The other path calls for a deeper and more balanced approach, where development decisions consider not just infrastructure and income but also green spaces, clean air, public health, and long-term well-being. It is a chance to build cities that thrive today without compromising the future.
Citation:
Soumya Bhowmick is a Fellow and Lead, World Economies and Sustainability at the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy, Observer Research Foundation (ORF). This article is based on his PhD research at the School of Management, BML Munjal University, supported by the SYLFF Research Grant (SRG) from the Tokyo Foundation, which enabled him to advance his work on the Inclusive Wealth Framework through consultations at the UNEP headquarters in Nairobi.
Banner image: Flood-affected areas in Amreli, Gujarat in June 2015. Image by Indian Air Force, licensed under Government Open Data License – India (GODL).
