A new climate study predicts a 43% rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall events, alongside a 2.5-fold increase in the heat wave days in India. Titled Weathering the Storm, the study by the international development organisation IPE Global and a geographic information system (GIS) company – Esri India, provides the first district-level assessment of climate extremes in India, highlighting the urgent need for micro-level risk planning and climate resilience strategies.
Using dynamic ensemble climate modelling, spatial mapping, and climatological analysis, the study projects climate scenarios for 2030 and 2040. According to the study, India saw a 15-fold rise in extreme heat wave days between 1993 and 2024, with a 19-fold increase in the past decade alone.
Some of the key findings include identifying potential heat wave hotspots; cities such as Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai are predicted to experience a two-fold increase in heatwave days. Moreover, eight out of 10 Indian districts are projected to face multiple extreme rainfall events by 2030. More than 75% of the districts in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya and Manipur are identified as high-risk states facing a double whammy of heat stress and rainfall extremes. These districts will at least witness one instance of heat wave in the months of March, April and May by 2030.
The study takes a keen interest in understanding the urban vulnerability to extreme weather events — around 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities will be at high risk due to increasing heat stress, storm surges, hailstorms, and lightning. The study also found that monsoon seasons in India are witnessing an extended summer-like condition, except on non-rainy days.
Abinash Mohanty, head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the lead author of the study, says that the study findings are indicators that climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall. “Meteorological phenomenon like El Niño and La Niña are going to gain stronger momentum, resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat,” Mohanty shares.
The study underscores the urgency of hyper-local risk assessments, early-warning systems, and targeted resilience strategies to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Other recommendations include integrating risk financing instruments and appointing district-level heat-risk champions. Promoting GIS-based decision tools for climate-resilient infrastructure and policy planning have also been suggested by the researchers as preparedness. As climate extremes intensify, India must move from reactive to proactive planning — turning data into action for a sustainable, climate-resilient future.
Banner image: Heavy rain and flooding in Hyderabad. Image by Rajib Ghosh via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0).
