Back home in Punjab, the Akalis’ stand gained larger political significance as it came in the wake of a recent statement from the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) state chief, Sunil Jakhar, that there was need for SAD and BJP to join hands again to ensure communal harmony in Punjab.
SAD General Secretary Dr Daljeet Singh Cheema said it was too early to comment on the possibility of the Akalis and the BJP coming back together.
“Our president, Sukhbir Badal, has already said we are with all those who are working for the state, and currently our focus is on saving the land of the people from the oppressive land pooling scheme of the government,” Dr Cheema told ThePrint Thursday.
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‘Daunting task’
According to political analysts, while the Akali Dal’s stand in Parliament backing the NDA against the Opposition over Operation Sindoor could mark a turning point in the political relationship between the estranged partners, a formal alliance, if any, will be a daunting task.
“To begin with, there is a serious difference of opinion within the BJP at the Centre and in Punjab with regards to the party’s ability to come to power on their own in the state,” said Dr Kanwalpreet Kaur of the Department of Political Science, DAV College, Sector 10, Chandigarh. “There are many who feel that they don’t need the Akalis. This lobby is largely driven by the RSS. This no-alliance group has devised a formula which they have managed to sell to a section of the Delhi leadership.”
Kaur added, “As part of the formula, the BJP has been told to gather Sikhs in the party and further show special respect for Sikhism. There have been multiple moves by the NDA to woo the Sikhs, starting from the opening of the Kartarpur Corridor to the Veer Bal Diwas, to starting a course on Sikh resistance of the Mughals in Delhi University. This section of the BJP believes that they already have the Hindu vote in their pocket and can woo the Sikhs in Punjab, both in the urban and rural areas, through these moves.”
Kaur said that the BJP’s cornering of almost 18 percent of the vote share during the parliamentary elections was shown as a major achievement by this group, with the promise that even better results will follow if the same strategy is continued and strengthened.
This no-alliance group is in no hurry to make the BJP come to power in the next assembly elections in 2027. “Their aim for the next assembly election is to be the opposition, preferably with AAP in power so that the Congress can be decimated and then make a strong bid for power alone in 2032,” said a BJP leader on condition of anonymity.
However, many in the party, especially those who intend to contest the assembly elections in 2027, feel that the bond with the Akalis is imperative to win and come to power.
“The non-alliance leaders in the BJP are making the big mistake of imagining that Punjab will go the way Haryana went. The two states are as different as chalk and cheese. In Punjab, if the rural vote bank has to shift from AAP and the Akalis, it will go with Congress, never the BJP. So even if it is 2032, they can only be the third fiddle to AAP and Congress. We are looking at the situation in Punjab only electorally, almost theoretically, not politically,” added the Punjab BJP leader.
Jakhar, who has been openly advocating for the two parties to come together, believes that an alliance is needed not only for individual political gains but for the future of the state and ensuring communal harmony, which, he says, is under threat once again.
“In 1996, the BJP, a national party, accepted being secondary to the Akali Dal in the larger interest of Punjab, which was emerging from the dark days of terrorism. For decades, the BJP stayed content with 23 Assembly seats and urban presence while the Akalis expanded in rural swathes,” Jakhar said in a recent interview with a regional daily.
“The BJP’s growth was stunted, but the party continued to give prime importance to Punjab’s interest over self. This has never been appreciated enough. Today, we again see forces inimical to Punjab resurfacing. So the BJP and Akalis must eschew political differences for Punjab’s sake,” he added.
The SAD, though fragmented and out in the cold for the past eight years, is also agreeable to a tie-up with the BJP, even though it has a long list of grouses against the party. The party leadership believes that ever since they broke the alliance over the farm laws, what they call the BJP’s “dirty tricks department” has been working overtime to try and finish the SAD.
“Starting with promoting an alternative SAD using the Dhindsas to meddle in Sikh institutions through Giani Harpreet Singh, the BJP has tried its best to make sure that Sukhbir Badal is taken out of the picture and made to sit home. But we survived it all,” said a senior Akali leader.
“It was a larger game where a secular Akali Dal was being forced to weaken so that a radical Akali Dal could replace it. The idea was to show the Hindu and Sikh voters a terrible option in the Akali Dal. It was a very dangerous attempt with no regard for Punjab, only a single-minded bid to divide the state. The Amritpal phenomenon, too, was a part of this ruinous attempt. The BJP doesn’t realise that nothing good ever comes out of such efforts,” added the Akali leader.
“Unlike other states where a religious divide or a caste divide has paid electoral dividends to the BJP, it doesn’t work in Punjab. Here, the populations cannot be partitioned on these lines; they are so well meshed. It is for the BJP to assimilate it,” said Kaur.
Political calculations
Analysts, however, also point out that between the two, the Akalis have a bigger need to join hands for the 2027 Assembly elections.
“Among the two parties, the situation of the Akali Dal (Badal) is perilous as it has seen an alarming decline in vote share (13.5 percent) and splinter groups along with desertion of prominent leaders,” said Prof Harjeshwar Singh of the department of history, SGGS College Sector 26 Chandigarh.
“The BJP has fared better, improving its vote share (18 percent), leapfrogging over the Akalis to be at the number three position in the state and improving its hold in urban areas. But individually, it has struggled. Its ideology of muscular nationalism and pro-corporate stance invites strong reactions among large sections of the population,” added Singh.
Singh added that the two parties stand a chance to gain power only if they come together. “Both are the two weakest parties in Punjab at numbers 3 and 4. This is because, unlike numbers 1 and 2, i.e., AAP and the Congress, the BJP and SAD have a limited social base and geographical influence. In comparison, both the Congress and AAP are catch-all parties reflecting the pluralistic ethos of the state,” said Singh.
“SAD is largely seen as a rural party mainly of the agrarian castes of the Sikhs confined to the rural areas, while the BJP is largely seen as an urban-based party of Hindus. Combined, they have been formidable forces, forming the government thrice since 1997, but individually, both struggle as epitomised by the 2024 elections when they could win only one seat out of 13,” added Singh.
“So if there is any chance of the two coming to power, it is only if they fight in combination, as it could fuse their vote bank and also bring the dissenters back into their fold. Among the two partners, the desperation of SAD (B) should be greater because it is facing an existential danger in the state,” said Singh.
Singh warns that if they join hands together, there could be a problem about the terms of their renegotiated relationships with the BJP likely having an upper hand.
BJP leaders admit that in case a tie-up is rebuilt, it cannot be on the old terms where they were the junior partner.
“If not bigger, we want an equal share in the number of seats,” said a BJP leader. “We are negotiating from a position of power while Akalis have no negotiation power,” he added.
In the old pact, the BJP had 20 of the 117 assembly seats and three of the 13 Lok Sabha seats. “Renegotiation is possible, but only on the basis of the winnability of a candidate. The BJP drew a nil in 80 seats in 2022. If we give in too much to the BJP’s whims, strong candidates will declare themselves as independent, and none of us will win,” said the senior Akali leader referred to earlier.
“Also, it remains to see if the simple arithmetic of their joining together is translated into actual chemistry at the polls,” said Harjeshwar Singh.
(Edited by Sugita Katyal)
