How VD Satheesan’s leadership won Congress Nilambur, and silenced his detractors

Thiruvananthapuram: With MLAs and Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee members overseeing two to three booths each, and district unit presidents one each, the party’s Nilambur byelection win is being credited as much to a tightly coordinated strategy as to strong stands taken by Leader of Opposition V.D. Satheesan in run-up to the bypoll.

The victory has elevated popularity and stature of Satheesan, whom many in his own Congress party saw as “arrogant”, within the party. He is now being praised not just for strategising the campaign for the 19 June poll but also for taking tough decisions, something his party is often accused of lacking.

A loss in the Nilambur bypoll would have been a death knell of sorts for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which has been out of power in the state since 2016. For the Congress, it wasn’t a smooth sailing during the campaign, largely due to the controversies created by former MLA P.V. Anvar.

Anvar, earlier an independent MLA backed by the Left Democratic Front (LDF), openly attacked Satheesan and Congress and UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath after his attempts to join the UDF after resigning the seat didn’t work out.

In 2016, the LDF fielded Anvar and he defeated Shoukath by 11,504 votes. In the 2021 polls, Anvar was re-elected, this time defeating Congress’ V.V. Prakash by 2,700 votes. But he resigned the seat in January—the resignation triggered the byelection—after a fallout with the LDF leadership, and declared an open war against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

Though a section of Congress leaders and its ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) wanted to bring him into the UDF fold, Satheesan remained firm against this, forcing Anvar to contest as an independent.

Meanwhile, the ruling CPI(M), which hadn’t fielded a candidate on its own symbol since the 2006 assembly polls, chose one of its most popular faces and party state secretariat member M. Swaraj to contest the poll. This was break from the CPI(M) usual practice of supporting an independent in Nilambur.

In the high-stakes contest, Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath secured 77,737 votes, followed by CPI(M)’s M. Swaraj with 66,660 votes. Anvar came third with 19,760 votes.

A Congress functionary based in Nilambur said Satheesan’s popularity within the party has risen significantly after the bypoll results announced 23 June. “He is generally considered arrogant, even within the Congress. But now everyone agrees that his stand benefited the party. If Anvar had been accommodated, he would have taken credit for the victory and interfered in party affairs,” the functionary said.

He added the Congress youth wing, which has practically remained inactive in Nilambur, was reactivated during the campaign, and several popular young leaders joined the canvassing.

“Since top leaders directly monitored preparations, internal disagreements didn’t flare up as they usually do,” the functionary said, but quickly added a caution, “It may not be the case in the Assembly election.”

He also noted the IUML had already agreed with the Congress to put up a united front in this election, as a defeat in the IUML’s stronghold of Malappuram (the Nilambur constituency falls in the district) would have been a setback for the League.

Political analyst P.J. Vincent said Satheesan has managed to project a strong persona of himself after the bypolls, a trait usually associated with rival leader and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

“Satheesan is the only leader in Congress today who can take firm stands. The party usually avoids confrontation and yields to public or ally pressure. Satheesan’s role in the Anvar decision marks a shift,” Vincent told ThePrint, adding the results mean Satheesan now becomes the front-runner chief ministerial candidate from the Congress if the UDF wins the assembly polls next year.

However, Vincent also pointed out that Congress’ vote share had slightly dipped from the 2021 Assembly polls, when V.V. Prakash had polled 78,527 votes in Nilambur, indicating the party couldn’t fully consolidate the anti-incumbency vote.

He added that if Anvar were brought into the UDF, it would have still benefited the Opposition, as he remains one of the most vocal critics of the Pinarayi government.

The rise of the leader

“When we win, it’s a collective credit. But when something comes out negative, the entire responsibility will be on me, (and) it should be,” Satheesan said in an interview in the run-up to the bypolls. The leader was particularly talking about the flak he was receiving for not accommodating Anvar into the UDF.

As for Anvar, after resigning from the Nilambur constituency, he met top Congress and IUML leaders in his attempt to join the UDF. However, it didn’t happen as Anvar held a series of press conferences openly criticising the UDF’s choice of fielding Aryadan Shoukath. He also attacked Satheesan for opposing his entry.

“Anvar’s character is unpredictable. You can’t trust him,” political analyst C.R. Neelakandan said.

But, when the door was decisively shut on Anvar, many Congress and IUML leaders did express displeasure over Satheesan’s decision.

Hailing from Ernakulam district’s Nettoor, Satheesan’s political journey began with an unsuccessful candidature in the 1996 Kerala Assembly polls. But he won the 2001 elections from Paravur and has since emerged victorious from the seat in consecutive polls, the margin in the last two Assembly polls being more than 20,000 votes.

Satheesan became the Leader of the Opposition, succeeding Ramesh Chennithala, in 2021, after the Congress suffered defeats in two successive Assembly polls. He was appointed nearly two weeks after the Youth Congress wrote to the All India Congress Committee, calling for a change in the party’s leadership in the state.

Following Satheesan’s appointment, one of the party’s young faces and then Palakkad MLA Shafi Parambil wrote a Facebook post welcoming the decision.

Satheesan has stayed away from Thiruvananthapuram MP Shashi Tharoor’s complaint that he wasn’t invited to campaign in Nilambur, but has questioned the basis for his praise for the LDF government on the ease of doing business in the state.

“Satheesan has an upper hand in strategising elections, which was evident in Thrikkakara, Puthuppally, and Palakkad bypolls too. He also enjoys the support of Congress’s youth leaders,” Neelakandan said.

There have been bypolls to five seats—Thrikkakara, Puthuppally, Palakkad, Chelakkara and Nilambur—in the state since the 2021 elections. Except Thrissur’s Chelakkara constituency, the UDF has won all four. Nilambur is also the first Congress win in a seat previously held by the LDF.

A Congress functionary told ThePrint Satheesan has emerged as a star among party functionaries and cadres after the polls. “It showed us that the party can take a stand and win without anybody’s help. It will boost cadre morale heading into the upcoming local body elections,” he said.

(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)

Also Read: Tharoor admits to ‘difference of opinion’ with Congress, says not asked to campaign in Nilambur