Why this Edappadi is good for AIADMK, bad for NDA

Edappadi K Palaniswami is on a roll. When the AIADMK general secretary asserts that none of the expelled leaders – V K Sasikala, T T V Dhinakaran, O Panneerselvam – or their followers would be readmitted, every party functionary nods in agreement. When he strips senior leader K A Sengottaiyan from the party posts for demanding reinduction of those expelled, nobody protests.

After every meeting with NDA ringleader Amit Shah, EPS returns with his resolve intact. Sengottaiyan’s rebellion appears to have petered out; Sasikala, TTV and OPS are wallowing in despair. EPS has the party in a vice-like grip. And this is good for AIADMK as a party – and not so good for NDA as an alliance in Tamil Nadu. Let me explain.

An assertive leader is one of the signs of a strong party. Jayalalithaa was the epitome of this quality while taking AIADMK through several highs and lows, almost like a monolith. EPS may not command the fear and fervour that Jayalalithaa did, but he has been able to make his lieutenants believe they have no option but to take his commands for the survival of the party – and their own.

EPS demonstrated his captaincy skills by keeping the party not just alive after Jayalalithaa’s death and subsequent infightings, but also leading it in the 2021 assembly election to win 66 seats, with a vote share of more than 33%. With another crucial assembly election around the corner, nobody dares to question him.

This cohesion out of coercion has also brought about a peculiar realignment that has virtually removed the fault line that divided thevars (mukkulathors) and gounders (Kongu vellalars) in AIADMK after Jayalalithaa’s death. EPS, while keeping his fellow gounders S P Velumani and P Thangamani close, counts as his strident supporters such thevars as R B Udhayakumar, Natham R Viswanathan and Dindigul C Sreenivasan. And pinning their re-entry hopes on renegade Sengottaiyan, a gounder, are thevars Sasikala, TTV and OPS.

EPS being uncompromising on keeping the expelled leaders out is understandable: One admitted, these people, EPS believes, would be an internal group that can never stop scheming against him. This intransigence may be seen as a mark of his strength as the party leader but not letting them in NDA doesn’t augur well for an alliance in an election that demands collective fire power against DMK.

OPS and TTV have walked out of the alliance, OPS demanding more respect from BJP, and TTV making it clear he wouldn’t accept EPS as the alliance’s chief minister candidate. And EPS cares a damn though Amit Shah has been conveying to NDA partners that DMK should be defeated “at any cost”. Amit, the Shah of forging alliances to capture power in several states, wouldn’t keep quiet. For, he knows the utility of small parties and groups in a close finish. OPS and TTV may not have big ground support, but their thevar pockets of influence, especially in the southern districts, can make a difference in seats that go to the wire.

Significant against this backdrop is BJP Tamil Nadu state president Nainar Nagenthran’s meeting with EPS on Sunday. Coming out of the closed doors, answering a reporter’s question on a possible reconciliation with TTV and OPS, Nagenthran parroted the tired-yet-relevant line “there is no permanent friends or enemies in politics”. Of late, Nagenthran’s negotiation skills were called into question. And his predecessor K Annamalai, who has had several run-ins with EPS that led to the parting of the two parties in September 2023, appears to be warming up to the AIADMK general secretary with some praise.

Whoever Shah chooses to convince EPS, the formula could be this: Taking back the expelled leaders can be your decision; having them in the alliance should be ours.

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