Chandigarh: Rajya Sabha MP and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate Sanjeev Arora posted an impressive victory Monday in the Ludhiana West assembly bypoll, paving the entry of Arvind Kejriwal in the Upper House of Parliament.
Arora secured 35,179 votes to win the closely contested four-way fight with a margin of over 10,600 votes. Congress candidate and two-time MLA Bharat Bhushan Ashu came in second with 24,542 votes. BJP candidate Jiwan Gupta got over 20,323 votes, while Patupkar Singh Ghuman of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) got a little over 8,200 votes.
The by-election was necessitated following the death of AAP MLA Gurpreet Singh Gogi in January. Voting took place on 19 June with over 51 percent voting, the lowest since 2002.
The win not only paves the way for Kejriwal’s re-entry into national politics, but also gives a much-needed boost to the AAP’s shaky footing in Punjab at the peak of anti-incumbency ever since it came to power in March 2022. However, the victory is likely to be seen as the sole achievement of the party’s Delhi team, further smothering Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s position in the state.
For the Congress, the results are a grim reminder of its ugly infighting that had an impact on Ashu’s electoral fortune. The BJP’s performance, too, is not as impressive as expected considering that it nurtured this seat since 2012. The result reiterates that the party has a long way to go before it can muster enough clout to win elections on its own.
The AAP improved its vote share from 34.46 percent from the 2022 assembly polls to 39.02 percent. Both the Congress (from 28.06 percent to 27.22 percent) and the BJP (from 23.95 percent to 22.54 percent) saw a slight fall in their vote share.
For the Akalis whose electoral fortunes have been on the decline since losing power in 2017, the solace is that its vote bank in the urban constituency remains intact since it went up a shade higher from 8.58 percent to 9.1 percent.
However, the party that had made history in Punjab by winning elections twice in a row, remains marred by internal factionalism. The Ludhiana result proved to be another reminder to the party leadership that its journey till the 2027 assembly polls is largely uphill.
Cabinet berth for Arora?
Arora is expected to be taken into the Punjab cabinet, with Kejriwal having openly declared during the campaign that he would be given a “bigger responsibility” in the state. “Arvind ji has said that he can be given a bigger responsibility in the Punjab government. As far as the Rajya Sabha seat is concerned, the leadership, the PAC will sit together, discuss and send a good candidate,” Delhi AAP president Saurabh Bharadwaj told ANI Monday.
Punjab AAP president Manish Sisodia said the result was a stamp of approval of the working of the party in Punjab. “This was a semi-final which has been won. Now the preparation is on for the final.”
The Ludhiana win will only boost the position and presence of Kejriwal’s team in Punjab, where it is increasing footprint ever since the loss this year in Delhi. The Delhi appointees, holding key administrative positions, had drawn a backlash from within the AAP with several senior workers and volunteers coming out openly against them.
However, the AAP brass decided to brazen it out, reiterating its support for the Delhi appointees. Some recent decisions, including reinforcing the powers of the Punjab Development Commission (comprising only Delhi appointees) and replacing Mann from the post of the chairman of the urban development boards with the chief secretary, were seen as moves aimed to dilute the authority of the CM.
Prof. Harjeshwar Singh, department of history, Chandigarh’s SGGS College, told ThePrint that the AAP’s win was expected because of the government using all tactics—’Saam, Daam, Dand, Bhed’—in the election. “Theirs was a better and concentrated campaign.However Delhi wallahs proved to be liabilities and margin was less than they would have hoped for.”
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Clash of personalities
Professor Kanwalpreet Kaur, department of political science, DAV College, Chandigarh, believes that the Ludhiana result can be easily explained if seen from the prism of the personalities of the two top candidates.
“It was a clash of two very distinct persons. The parties they belong to had become immaterial towards the end of the campaigning. Over the years, Ashu, though once immensely popular, has gained more enemies in Ludhiana than friends. His brashness and egotistical attitude were unacceptable. Also his party leaders hardly campaigned for him,” she told ThePrint.
“On the other hand, Arora was seen to be a better human being, down to earth and approachable. That the AAP is in power also helped Arora. The other factor is the declaration of Arora’s candidature as early as February. It always helps the candidate mould the campaign and cover the constituency multiple times,” she added.
Ashu had won from Ludhiana West in 2012 with a whopping almost 70,000 votes. In 2017, he retained it with over 66,000 votes despite the debutant AAP getting over 30,000 votes. But, he lost to AAP’s Gogi in 2022.
The Congress has only itself to blame for the defeat having failed to put up a united front in the election. Its state president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, Leader of the Opposition Partap Bajwa, former deputy chief minister Sukhjinder Randhawa, Ludhiana district president Sanjay Talwar, former MLAs from Ludhiana including Rakesh Pandey, Surinder Dawar, and Kuldeep Vaid had stayed away Ashu’s campaign.
Just three days before polling day, the party’s Punjab in-charge Bhupesh Baghel tried to bring all the leaders together and address a joint press conference. While Warring and Bajwa fell in line, the bypoll in-charge, Rana Gurjeet Singh, was kept away so as not to offend Bajwa. Ashu was away busy campaigning.
In a post on ‘X’ Monday, Warring sought to dismiss the results saying that the Ludhiana poll was “just a bye election”, but added that an in-house introspection will be done.
Prof Harjeshwar pointed out that Ashu fought valiantly but rift in the party, a lackadaisical ground campaign and lack of support from local Councillors hurt him. “However he retained his vote bank.Congress needs to introspect and unite for 2027.”
Unite: Message to SAD-BJP
For a surprise and last minute candidate who barely campaigned for a fortnight, BJP’s Jiwan Gupta has shown immense potential. The Ludhiana West seat, largely an urban Hindu dominated seat, was won by SAD leader Harish Dhanda in 2007 when SAD-BJP contested together. In 2012, the SAD handed over the seat to BJP as part of its seat sharing rearrangement but the seat was won by the Congress.
Five years on, SAD-BJP joint candidate Kamal Chatley got only 23,000 votes. In 2022, BJP and SAD candidates Bikram Sidhu and Maheshinder Singh Grewal tallied 28,000 votes and over 10,000 votes, respectively.
In the bypoll, their combined vote share puts them comfortably in the second position ahead of the Congress. The result could give a push to talks about the two parties reviving their decades-old bond broken over the farmer’s protest in 2021.
“The clear message that the BJP and SAD get from the elections is that they have little electoral future independent of one another,” said Prof Kanwalpreet.
Prof Harjeshwar said BJP should be heartened by the result. “It retained its core vote bank despite an insipid candidate and lukewarm campaign. The Akali Dal also should also feel heartened as a combination. A good candidate and good campaign helped increase its vote share despite it being a non-Akali seat. Sukhbir Badal (SAD head) should be strengthened vis a vis other Akali factions. This should lead to serious talks of a renewed Akali-BJP alliance,” he said.
Union Minister Ravneet Bittu pointed out that the combined votes against the AAP were more than in favour. “This speaks volumes about the growing discontent on the ground. My gratitude to all BJP workers and leaders whose tireless efforts made this result possible. Let’s continue to move forward with dedication and resolve,” the Rajya Sabha MP wrote on ‘X’.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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